Information processing device, information processing method, and program

ABSTRACT

In an information processing device according to the present invention, an estimation unit is configured to estimate each of a plurality of estimation values related to a target state quantity by using a plurality of models for explaining a target device. A probability specification unit is configured to specify each of a plurality of probabilities corresponding to the plurality of estimation values on the basis of a probability distribution of values of state quantities related to the target state quantity. A management value specification unit is configured to specify a value to be used for management of the target device on the basis of the plurality of estimation values and the plurality of probabilities.

TECHNICAL FIELD

The present invention relates to an information processing device, aninformation processing method, and a program.

The application is based on Japanese Patent Application No. 2017-065894filed on Mar. 29, 2017, the content of which is incorporated herein byreference.

BACKGROUND ART

In a plant such as a power generation plant, it is conceivable that amonitoring device collects state quantity values of a target deviceconstituting the plant such as a temperature and a pressure at the timeof the operation of the target device, and the collected statequantities be used for the maintenance, monitoring, and the like of thedevice.

It has been proposed that the monitoring device processes the collectedstate quantities such that an operator of the device can easily use themand execute the maintenance, monitoring, and the like of the device. Forexample, in Patent Document 1, it is proposed that, when a computerdetects omission portions of collected state quantities of an industrialplant, the computer executes a complementary process and calculatesvalues of the omission state quantities.

In addition, it is known that modes such as a physical model and astatistical model are used when values of omission state quantities areset through a complementary process.

CITATION LIST Patent Documents Patent Document 1

United States Patent Application, Publication No. 2016/0004794

SUMMARY OF INVENTION Technical Problem

Patent Document 1 discloses that an information processing deviceexecutes a complementary process to complement a value of an omissionstate quantity, but does not disclose a specific method of setting avalue of an omission state quantity.

In addition, although a value taken by a state quantity of a devicefollows a fixed probability distribution, a value of an omission statequantity is not set on the basis of an estimation value of a statequantity estimated using each of models in consideration of such aprobability distribution.

The present invention is contrived in view of the above-describedproblems, and an object thereof is to appropriately set state quantityvalues used for the management of a target device on the basis of anestimation value of a state quantity calculated using a plurality ofmodels in consideration of a probability distribution of values of statequantities.

Solution to Problem

According to a first aspect of the present invention, an informationprocessing device includes an estimation unit which is configured toestimate each of a plurality of estimation values related to a targetstate quantity by using a plurality of models for explaining a targetdevice, a probability specification unit which is configured to specifyeach of a plurality of probabilities corresponding to the plurality ofestimation values on the basis of a probability distribution of valuesof state quantities related to the target state quantity, and amanagement value specification unit which is configured to specify avalue to be used for management of the target device on the basis of theplurality of estimation values and the plurality of probabilities.

According to a second aspect of the present invention, the informationprocessing device according to the first aspect may further include anevaluation value calculation unit which is configured to calculate eachof a plurality of evaluation values which are values of evaluation itemsof management of the target device on the basis of the plurality ofestimation values, in which the probability specification unit isconfigured to specify the plurality of probabilities respectivelycorresponding to the plurality of evaluation values on the basis of theprobability distribution of the values of the evaluation items.

According to a third aspect of the present invention, in the informationprocessing device according to the second aspect, the evaluation valuecalculation unit is configured to calculate each of a plurality ofevaluation values for the plurality of estimation values on the basis ofa plurality of values which can be taken by an unknown state quantitywhich is a state quantity having an unknown value, the probabilityspecification unit is configured to specify the plurality ofprobabilities respectively corresponding to the plurality of evaluationvalues for the plurality of estimation values on the basis of aconditional probability distribution of the values of the evaluationitems with a value of the unknown state quantity as a precondition, andthe management value specification unit is configured to specify a valueto be used for management of the target device on the basis of the sumof probabilities corresponding to the plurality of evaluation values forthe plurality of estimation values.

According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, in theinformation processing device according to the second or third aspect,the evaluation value calculation unit is configured to calculate aplurality of evaluation values related to the evaluation items of aplurality of types on the basis of the plurality of estimation values,and the management value specification unit is configured to specify avalue to be used for management of the target device on the basis ofprobabilities corresponding to the evaluation items of a plurality oftypes for each of values of the plurality of target state quantities.

According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, in the informationprocessing device according to any one of the first to fourth aspects,the management value specification unit is configured to specify thevalue of the target state quantity related to the highest probability asa value to be used for management of the target device.

According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, in the informationprocessing device according to any one of the first to fifth aspects,the plurality of models may include at least any one of a statisticalmodel and a physical model.

According to a seventh aspect of the present invention, the informationprocessing device according to the sixth aspect may further include amodel updating unit which updates the statistical model on the basis ofvalues of past state quantifies, in which the probability specificationunit is configured to specify a probability corresponding to anestimation value estimated using the updated statistical model.

According to an eighth aspect of the present invention, an informationprocessing method includes estimating each of a plurality of estimationvalues related to a target state quantity by using a plurality of modelsfor explaining a target device, specifying each of a plurality ofprobabilities corresponding to the plurality of estimation values on thebasis of a probability distribution of values of state quantitiesrelated to the target state quantity, and specifying a value to be usedfor management of the target device on the basis of the plurality ofestimation values and the plurality of probabilities.

According to a ninth aspect of the present invention, a program causes acomputer to estimate each of a plurality of estimation values related toa target state quantity by using a plurality of models for explaining atarget device, specify each of a plurality of probabilitiescorresponding to the plurality of estimation values on the basis of aprobability distribution of values of state quantities related to thetarget state quantity, and specify a value to be used for management ofthe target device on the basis of the plurality of estimation values andthe plurality of probabilities.

Advantageous Effects of Invention

The information processing device according to at least one aspect ofthe above-described aspects can appropriately set a value of a statequantity to be used for management of a target device on the basis of anestimation value of a target state quantity calculated using each modelin consideration of a probability distribution of values of statequantities.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of amanagement system according to a first embodiment.

FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of amanagement device according to the first embodiment.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing operations of the management deviceaccording to the first embodiment.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a specific example of a method of specifyinga management value according to the first embodiment.

FIG. 5 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of amanagement device according to a second embodiment.

FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing operations of a management deviceaccording to a second embodiment.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a specific example of a method of specifyinga management value according to the second embodiment.

FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing operations of a management deviceaccording to a third embodiment.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a specific example of a method of specifyinga management value according to the third embodiment.

FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing operations of a management deviceaccording to a fourth embodiment.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a specific example of a method ofspecifying a management value according to the fourth embodiment.

FIG. 12 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of amanagement device according to a fifth embodiment.

FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing operations of the management deviceaccording to the fifth embodiment.

FIG. 14 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of acomputer according to at least one embodiment.

DESCRIPTION OF EMBODIMENTS First Embodiment

Hereinafter, embodiments will be described in detail with reference tothe accompanying drawings.

FIG. 1 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of amanagement system according to a first embodiment.

A management system 1 includes a target device 10, a plurality ofmeasurement instruments 20, a communication device 30, and a managementdevice 40.

The target device 10 is a device to be managed by the management device40. Examples of the target device 10 include a gas turbine, a steamturbine, a boiler, a coal gasification furnace, and the like. Inaddition, the target device may be an environmental plant, a chemicalplant, or a transportation system such as an aircraft.

The measurement instrument 20 is provided in the target device 10 andmeasures a state quantity of the target device 10.

The communication device 30 transmits a measurement value of the statequantity measured by the measurement instrument 20 to the managementdevice 40 through a network N.

The management device 40 manages the target device 10 on the basis ofthe measurement value received from the communication device 30. Themanagement device 40 is an example of an information processing device.

«Configuration of Management Device»

FIG. 2 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of themanagement device according to the first embodiment.

The management device 40 includes a measurement value acquisition unit401, an omission detection unit 402, a model storage unit 403, anestimation unit 404, a probability distribution storage unit 405, aprobability specification unit 406, a management value specificationunit 407, and a management unit 408.

The measurement value acquisition unit 401 receives measurement valuesof state quantities which are measured by a plurality of measurementinstruments 20 from the communication device 30.

The omission detection unit 402 detects a state quantity of which thevalue is omission among state quantities to be processed, on the basisof the plurality of measurement values acquired by the measurement valueacquisition unit 401. Here, omission of a value refers to temporal orspatial omission. For example, in a case where the management unit 408manages a state quantity for each time Δt, the omission detection unit402 detects the omission of a measurement value at time T+Δt when ameasurement value at time T and a measurement value at time T+2Δt areacquired. Further, for example, in a case where the management unit 408manages a state quantity for each distance Δd, the omission ofmeasurement values at a position (0, Δd), a position (Δd, 0), a position(Δd, Δd), a position (Δd, 2Δd), and a position (2Δd, Δd) is detectedwhen measurement values at a position (0, 0), a position (2Δd, 0), aposition (0, 2Δd), and a position (2Δd, 2Δd) are acquired.

The model storage unit 403 stores a plurality of models for explainingthe movement of the target device 10. As the models, a statistical modeland a physical model can be used. Additionally, a rule model and aknowledge model may be used. The statistical model is a model thatstatistically reproduces the movement of the target device 10 on thebasis of a value of a state quantity in the past operation of the targetdevice 10. The statistical model is updated on the basis of storedvalues of state quantities in a past operation. The physical model is amodel that reproduces the movement of the target device 10 using anumerical expression (for example, a thermodynamic equation) thatfollows the laws of nature on the basis of design information of thetarget device 10.

The estimation unit 404 estimates a value of a state quantity for eachmodel stored in the model storage unit 403 on the basis of a measurementvalue measured by the measurement value acquisition unit 401.Hereinafter, a state quantity to be estimated by the estimation unit 404will be referred to as a target state quantity. That is, the estimationunit 404 calculates values of a plurality of target state quantitiesusing different models.

The probability distribution storage unit 405 stores a probabilitydistribution table in winch a value of a target state quantity and aprobability of taking the value are associated with each other. Theprobability distribution table is obtained in advance using designinformation of the target device 10 or statistics of past statequantities. Meanwhile, the probability distribution storage unit 405 maystore a probability distribution function instead of a probabilitydistribution table.

The probability specification unit 406 specifies a probability of takingan estimation value of a target state quantity obtained by theestimation unit 404 for each estimation value on the basis of aprobability distribution stored in the probability distribution storageunit 405.

The management value specification unit 407 selects one of a pluralityof estimation values estimated by the estimation unit 404 on the basisof a probability specified by the probability specification unit 406 andsets the selected value to be a value (management value) to be used forthe management of the target device 10.

The management unit 408 manages the target device 10 on the basis of ameasurement value acquired by the measurement value acquisition unit 401and a value specified by the management value specification unit 407.Examples of the management of the target device 10 include monitoringwhether or not a state quantity of the target device 10 deviates from anoperation allowable range, monitoring whether or not an output relatedto an evaluation item of the target device 10 satisfies a target,outputting a control signal to the target device 10, and the like.Examples of the evaluation item include the amount of NOx emission,electricity sales revenues, the temperature of gas, and the like.

«Operation of Management Device»

FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing operations of the management deviceaccording to the first embodiment.

When the management device 40 starts to manage the target device 10, themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 acquires a measurement value of astate quantity measured by the measurement instrument 20 from thecommunication device 30 (step S1). Next, the omission detection unit 402detects an omission in the measurement values acquired by themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 (step S2). The estimation unit404 applies the measurement value acquired by the measurement valueacquisition unit 401 to each of a plurality of models to obtain each ofestimation values of state quantities (target state quantities) of whichthe omission has been detected (step S3).

Next, the probability specification unit 406 specifies an appearanceprobability of each estimation value on the basis of a probabilitydistribution stored in the probability distribution storage unit 405(step S4). In addition, the management value specification unit 407specifies the highest probability among probabilities specified by theprobability specification unit 406 and selects an estimation valuerelated to the probability to specify a value of a state quantity ofwhich the omission has been detected (step S5). In addition, themanagement unit 408 manages the target device 10 on the basis of themeasurement value acquired by the measurement value acquisition unit 401and the value specified by the management value specification unit 407(step S6). In a case where the target device 10 is a gas turbine, thetarget device 10 is managed on the basis of specified management values,for example, by changing a gas turbine output instruction value,changing the setting of an opening of an IGV, or changing a fuel flowrate.

«Specific Example of Operation»

Here, a method of specifying a management value according to the firstembodiment using a specific example will be described.

FIG. 4 is a diagram showing a specific example of a method of specifyinga management value according to the first embodiment.

A case where a probability distribution of values of target statequantities is a distribution shown in FIG. 4 and the estimation unit 404outputs an estimation value e1 based on a first model and an estimationvalue e2 based on a second model will be described. A graph G1 includedin FIG. 4 is a graph in which a vertical axis represents a probabilitydensity and a horizontal axis represents a value of a target statequantity. The probability specification unit 406 obtains an appearanceprobability of the estimation value e1 on the basis of a probabilitydistribution of a target state quantity. In the example shown in FIG. 4,a probability density of the appearance probability of the estimationvalue e1 is 0.2. In addition, the probability specification unit 406obtains an appearance probability of the estimation value e2 on thebasis of a probability distribution of a target state quantity. In theexample shown in FIG. 4, a probability density of the appearanceprobability of the estimation value e2 is 0.3. In addition, themanagement value specification unit 407 specifies an estimation valuerelated to a higher appearance probability among appearanceprobabilities of specified estimation values to be a management value.In the example shown in FIG. 4, since the appearance probability of theestimation value e2 is higher than the appearance probability of theestimation value e1, the management value specification unit 407determines a management value to be the estimation value e2.

«Operations and Effects»

In this manner, according to the first embodiment, the management device40 specifies a value to be used for the management of the target device10 from a plurality of estimation values on the basis of a probabilitydistribution of values of target state quantities. That is, according tothe first embodiment, the management device 40 can appropriately set avalue of a target state quantity to be used for the management of thetarget device 10 on the basis of an estimation value of a target statequantity calculated using each of models in consideration of aprobability distribution of values of target state quantities.

Second Embodiment

The management device 40 according to the first embodiment sets a valueof a target state quantity to be used for the management of the targetdevice 10 on the basis of a probability distribution of values of targetstate quantities. On the other hand, a management device 40 according toa second embodiment sets a value of a target state quantity to be usedfor the management of a target device 10 on the basis of a probabilitydistribution of values of evaluation items of management of the targetdevice 10. Examples of the evaluation item include the amount of NOxemission, electricity sales revenues, the temperature of gas, and thelike.

«Configuration of Management Device»

FIG. 5 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of amanagement device according to the second embodiment.

A management device 40 according to the second embodiment furtherincludes an evaluation value calculation unit 409 in addition tocomponents in the first embodiment. The evaluation value calculationunit 409 calculates a value of an evaluation item of the target device10 using each of a plurality of estimation values estimated by anestimation unit 404 and a measurement value measured by a measurementvalue acquisition unit 401 for each of the estimation values.

A probability distribution storage unit 405 according to the secondembodiment stores a probability distribution table in which a value ofan evaluation item and a probability of taking the value are associatedwith each other.

A probability specification unit 406 according to the second embodimentspecifies a probability of taking an evaluation value calculated by theevaluation value calculation unit 409 for each evaluation value on thebasis of a probability distribution stored in the probabilitydistribution storage unit 405.

«Operations of Management Device»

FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing operations of the management deviceaccording to the second embodiment.

When the management device 40 starts to manage the target device 10, themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 acquires a measurement value of astate quantity from a measurement instrument 20 from a communicationdevice 30 (step S101). Next, the omission detection unit 402 detects theomission of a measurement value acquired by the measurement valueacquisition unit 401 (step S102). The estimation unit 404 applies themeasurement value acquired by the measurement value acquisition unit 401to each of a plurality of models to obtain each of estimation values ofstate quantities of which the omission has been detected (step S103).

Next, the evaluation value calculation unit 409 calculates values of aplurality of evaluation items on the basis of each of a plurality ofestimation values estimated by the estimation unit 404 (step S104). Thevalue of the evaluation item can be obtained using a function havingvalues of a plurality of state quantities as explanation variables. Theevaluation value calculation unit 409 calculates an evaluation value bysubstituting a measurement value or an estimation value for anexplanation variable of the function.

Next, the probability specification unit 406 specifies an appearanceprobability of each evaluation value on the basis of a probabilitydistribution stored in the probability distribution storage unit 405(step S105). In addition, the management value specification unit 407specifies the highest probability among probabilities specified by theprobability specification unit 406 and selects an estimation value usedfor the calculation of an evaluation value related to the probability tospecify a value of a state quantity of which the omission has beendetected (step S106). In addition, the management unit 408 manages thetarget device 10 on the basis of a measurement value acquired by themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 and a value specified by themanagement value specification unit 407 (step S107).

«Specific Example of Operation»

Here, a method of specifying a management value according to the secondembodiment is described using a specific example.

FIG. 7 is a diagram showing a specific example of a method of specifyinga management value according to the second embodiment.

A case where a probability distribution of values to be evaluated is adistribution shown in FIG. 7 and the estimation unit 404 outputs anestimation value e1 based on a first model and an estimation value e2based on a second model will be described. A graph G2 included in FIG. 6is a graph in which a vertical axis represents a probability density anda horizontal axis represents a value of a probability distribution. Theevaluation value calculation unit 409 calculates an evaluation valuef(e1) which is a value of an evaluation item on the basis of theestimation value e1. In addition, the evaluation value calculation unit409 calculates an evaluation value f(e2) which is a value of anevaluation item on the basis of the estimation value e2. Next theprobability specification unit 406 obtains an appearance probability ofthe evaluation value f(e1) on the basis of a probability distribution ofvalues of evaluation items. In the example shown in FIG. 7, aprobability density of the appearance probability of the evaluationvalue f(e1) is 0.30. In addition, the probability specification unit 406obtains an appearance probability of the evaluation value f(e2) on thebasis of a probability distribution of values of evaluation items. Inthe example shown in FIG. 7, a probability density of the appearanceprobability of the evaluation value f(e2) is 0.35. In addition, themanagement value specification unit 407 specifies an estimation valueused for the calculation of a higher appearance probability amongappearance probabilities of specified evaluation values to be amanagement value. In the example shown in FIG. 7, since the appearanceprobability of the evaluation value f(e2) is higher than the appearanceprobability of the evaluation value f(e1), the management valuespecification unit 407 sets the estimation value e2 used for thecalculation of the evaluation value f(e2) to be a management value.

«Operations and Effects»

In this manner, according to the second embodiment, the managementdevice 40 specifies a value to be used for the management of the targetdevice 10 from a plurality of estimation values on the basis of aprobability distribution of values to be evaluated and calculated on thebasis of a target state quantity. That is, according to the secondembodiment, the management device 40 can appropriately set a value of atarget state quantity to be used for the management of the target device10 on the basis of an estimation value of a target state quantitycalculated using each of models in consideration of a probabilitydistribution of values to be evaluated.

Third Embodiment

The management device 40 according to the second embodiment sets a valueof a target state quantity to be used for the management of the targetdevice 10 on the basis of a probability distribution of values ofevaluation items of management of the target device 10. Here, dependingon an evaluation item, a value of the evaluation item may fluctuate dueto a state quantity that cannot be measured or predicted. For example,the amount of NOx emission which is one of evaluation items fluctuatesdepending on the concentration of oxygen during combustion and a timefor which high-frequency combustion gas stays, but these values cannotbe measured and predicted. Hereinafter, a state quantity that cannot bemeasured or predicted will be referred to as an unknown state quantity.

A management device 40 according to a third embodiment sets a value of atarget state quantity to be used for the management of a target device10 in consideration of an unknown state quantity. Meanwhile, aconfiguration of the management device 40 is the same as that in thesecond embodiment. However, a probability distribution storage unit 405according to the third embodiment stores a probability distributiontable in which a value of an evaluation item and a probability of takingthe value are associated with each other for each value of an unknownstate quantity. That is, the probability distribution table according tothe third embodiment is a table showing a conditional probabilitydistribution with a value of an unknown state quantity as aprecondition. In the third embodiment, the probability distributionstorage unit 405 stores a probability distribution table in a case wherea value of an unknown state quantity falls within a first range (acomparatively large value), a probability distribution table in a casewhere a value of an unknown state quantity falls within a second range(a medium value), and a probability distribution table in a case where avalue of an unknown state quantity falls within a third range (acomparatively small value).

«Operations of Management Device»

FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing operations of the management deviceaccording to the third embodiment.

When the management device 40 starts to manage the target device 10, themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 acquires a measurement value of astate quantity measured by the measurement instrument 20 from thecommunication device 30 (step S201). Next, an omission detection unit402 detects the omission of a measurement value acquired by themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 (step S202). An estimation unit404 applies the measurement value acquired by the measurement valueacquisition unit 401 to each of a plurality of models to obtain anestimation value of a state quantity of which the omission has beendetected (step S203).

Next, the management device 40 selects values (a first range, a secondrange, and a third range) of unknown state quantities one by one (stepS204), and executes processes of step S205 and step S206. That is, anevaluation value calculation unit 409 calculates values of a pluralityof evaluation items on the basis of each of a plurality of estimationvalues estimated by the estimation unit 404, the values of the unknownstate quantities which are selected in step S204, and the measurementvalue acquired in step S101 for each of the estimation values (stepS205). A probability specification unit 406 specifies an appearanceprobability of each evaluation value on the basis of a probabilitydistribution table associated with the values of the unknown statequantities which are selected in step S204 (step S206).

When the management device 40 calculates a plurality of appearanceprobabilities for each value of an unknown state quantity, a managementvalue specification unit 407 calculates the sum of appearanceprobabilities for each evaluation value calculated from the same statequantity (step S207). That is, the management value specification unit407 calculates the sum of an appearance probability of an evaluationvalue assuming that a value of an unknown state quantity falls withinthe first range as a precondition, an appearance probability of anevaluation value assuming that a value of an unknown state quantityfalls within the second range as a precondition, and an appearanceprobability of an evaluation value assuming that a value of an unknownstate quantity falls within the third range as a precondition for eachevaluation value calculated from the same state quantity.

In addition, the management value specification unit 407 specifies thehighest probability in the sum of probabilities calculated by theprobability specification unit 406 and selects an estimation value usedfor the calculation of an evaluation value related to the probability tospecify a value of a state quantity of which the omission has beendetected (step S208). In addition, the management unit 408 manages thetarget device 10 on the basis of the measurement value acquired by themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 and the value specified by themanagement value specification unit 407 (step S209).

«Specific Example of Operation»

Here, a method of specifying a management value according to the thirdembodiment will be described using a specific example.

FIG. 9 is a diagram showing a specific example of a method of specifyinga management value according to the third embodiment.

A case where a probability distribution of values to be evaluatedchanges as shown in FIG. 9 depending on a value of an unknown statequantity and the estimation unit 404 outputs an estimation value e1based on a first model and an estimation value e2 based on a secondmodel will be described.

All of a graph G2-1, a graph G2-2, and a graph G2-3 included in FIG. 9are graphs in which a vertical axis represents a probability density anda horizontal axis represents a value of a probability distribution. Thegraph G2-1 shows a distribution of appearance probabilities of values tobe evaluated when a value of an unknown state quantity is in the firstrange. The graph G2-2 shows a distribution of appearance probabilitiesof values to be evaluated when a value of an unknown state quantity isin the second range. The graph G2-3 shows a distribution of appearanceprobabilities of values to be evaluated when a value of an unknown statequantity is in the third range.

In step S204, the management device 40 selects a value in the firstrange as a value of an unknown state quantity. The evaluation valuecalculation unit 409 calculates an evaluation value f1(e1) which is avalue of an evaluation item in a case where a value of an unknown statequantity is in the first range on the basis of the estimation value e1.In addition, the evaluation value calculation unit 409 calculates anevaluation value f1(e2) which is a value of an evaluation item in a casewhere a value of an unknown state quantity is in the first range on thebasis of the estimation value e2. Next, the probability specificationunit 406 obtains an appearance probability of the evaluation valuef1(e1) on the basis of the probability distribution shown in the graphG2-1. In the example shown in FIG. 9, a probability density of theappearance probability of the evaluation value f1(e1) is 0.30. Inaddition, the probability specification unit 406 obtains an appearanceprobability of the evaluation value f1(e2) on the basis of theprobability distribution shown in the graph G2-1. In the example shownin FIG. 9, a probability density of the appearance probability of theevaluation value f1(e2) is 0.35.

Next, the management device 40 selects a value in the second range as avalue of an unknown state quantity. The evaluation value calculationunit 409 calculates an evaluation value f2(e1) which is a value of anevaluation item in a case where a value of an unknown state quantity isin the second range on the basis of the estimation value e1. Inaddition, the evaluation value calculation unit 409 calculates anevaluation value f2(e2) which is a value of an evaluation item in a casewhere a value of an unknown state quantity is in the second range on thebasis of the estimation value e2. Next, the probability specificationunit 406 obtains an appearance probability of the evaluation valuef2(e1) on the basis of the probability distribution shown in the graphG2-2. In the example shown in FIG. 9, a probability density of theappearance probability of the evaluation value f2(e1) is 0.50. Inaddition, the probability specification unit 406 obtains an appearanceprobability of the evaluation value f2(e2) on the basis of theprobability distribution shown in the graph G2-2. In the example shownin FIG. 9, a probability density of the appearance probability of theevaluation value f2(e2) is 0.10.

Next, the management device 40 selects a value in the third range as avalue of an unknown state quantity. The evaluation value calculationunit 409 calculates an evaluation value f3(e1) which is a value of anevaluation item in a case where a value of an unknown state quantity isin the third range on the basis of the estimation value e1. In addition,the evaluation value calculation unit 409 calculates an evaluation valuef3(e2) which is a value of an evaluation item in a case where a value ofan unknown state quantity is in the third range on the basis of theestimation value e2. Next, the probability specification unit 406obtains an appearance probability of the evaluation value f3(e1) on thebasis of the probability distribution shown in the graph G2-3. In theexample shown in FIG. 9, a probability density of the appearanceprobability of the evaluation value f3(e1) is 0.18. In addition, theprobability specification unit 406 obtains an appearance probability ofthe evaluation value f3(e2) on the basis of the probability distributionshown in the graph G2-3. In the example shown in FIG. 9, a probabilitydensity of the appearance probability of the evaluation value f3(e2) is0.15.

In addition, the management value specification unit 407 calculates thesum (0.30+0.50+0.18=0.98) of the appearance probabilities related to theevaluation values calculated on the basis of the estimation value e1. Inaddition, the management value specification unit 407 calculates the sum(0.35+0.10+0.15=0.60) of the appearance probabilities related to theevaluation values calculated on the basis of the estimation value e2. Inaddition, the management value specification unit 407 specifies anestimation value used for the calculation of a higher appearanceprobability in the sum of the specified appearance probabilities as amanagement value. In the example shown in FIG. 9, since the appearanceprobability of the evaluation value calculated on the basis of theestimation value e1 is higher than the appearance probability of theevaluation value calculated on the basis of the estimation value e2, themanagement value specification unit 407 sets the estimation value e1 tobe a management value.

«Operations and Effects»

In this manner, according to the third embodiment, the management device40 specifies an appearance probability of an evaluation value on thebasis of a plurality of values that can be taken by an unknown statequantity and specifies a value to be used for the management of thetarget device 10 on the basis of the sum of probabilities correspondingto a plurality of evaluation values for each estimation value. Thereby,the management device 40 can appropriately set a value of a target statequantity to be used for the management of the target device 10 also in acase where there is an unknown value that cannot be measured andpredicted in calculating a value to be evaluated.

Fourth Embodiment

According to the second and third embodiments, the management device 40specifies a value of a target state quantity on the basis of anappearance probability of a value of a certain evaluation item. On theother hand, a management device 40 according to a fourth embodimentspecifies a value of a target state quantity on the basis of values of aplurality of evaluation items. For example, the management device 40specifies a value of a target state quantity on the basis of the valueof the amount of NOx emission, the value of electricity sales revenues,and the value of the temperature of exhaust gas. Meanwhile, aconfiguration of the management device 40 is the same as that in thesecond embodiment.

«Operations of Management Device»

FIG. 10 is a flowchart showing operations of the management deviceaccording to the fourth embodiment.

When the management device 40 starts to manage a target device 10, ameasurement value acquisition unit 401 acquires a measurement value of astate quantity measured by a measurement instrument 20 from acommunication device 30 (step S301). Next, an omission detection unit402 detects the omission of the measurement value acquired by themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 (step S302). An estimation unit404 applies the measurement value acquired by the measurement valueacquisition unit 401 to each of a plurality of models to obtainestimation values of state quantities of which the omission has beendetected (step S303).

Next, the management device 40 selects types of evaluation items one byone to execute the following processes of steps S205 to S207 (stepS204).

First, an evaluation value calculation unit 409 calculates values ofevaluation items related to the types selected in step S204 on the basisof each of the plurality of estimation values estimated by theestimation unit 404 (step S205). Next, a probability specification unit406 specifies an appearance probability of each evaluation value on thebasis of a probability distribution stored in a probability distributionstorage unit 405 (step S206). Next, a management value specificationunit 407 determines whether or not the specified appearance probabilityis equal to or greater than a predetermined threshold value (forexample, a probability density of 0.3) (step S207).

When it is determined whether or not an appearance probability is equalto or greater than the predetermined threshold value for an evaluationitem of each type, the management value specification unit 407 specifiesa value of a state quantity of which the omission has been detected byselecting an estimation value having the largest number of items inwhich an appearance probability is equal to or greater than thepredetermined threshold value (step S208). In addition, a managementunit 408 manages the target device 10 on the basis of the measurementvalue acquired by the measurement value acquisition unit 401 and thevalue specified by the management value specification unit 407 (stepS209).

«Specific Example of Operation»

Here, a method of specifying a management value according to the fourthembodiment is described using a specific example.

FIG. 11 is a diagram showing a specific example of a method ofspecifying a management value according to the fourth embodiment.

A case where the estimation unit 404 outputs an estimation value e1based on a first model and an estimation value e2 based on a secondmodel and types of evaluation items to be calculated are the amount ofNOx emission, electricity sales revenues, and the temperature of exhaustgas will be described.

The evaluation value calculation unit 409 calculates an evaluation valueof the amount of NOx emission, an evaluation value of electricity salesrevenues, and an evaluation value of the temperature of exhaust gas onthe basis of the estimation value e1. In addition, the evaluation valuecalculation unit 409 calculates an evaluation value of the amount of NOxemission, an evaluation value of electricity sales revenues, and anevaluation value of the temperature of exhaust gas on the basis of theestimation value e2. Next, the probability specification unit 406obtains an appearance probability for each of the evaluation value ofthe amount of NOx emission, the evaluation value of electricity salesrevenues, and the evaluation value of the temperature of exhaust gaswhich are obtained from the estimation value e1. Similarly, theprobability specification unit 406 obtains an appearance probability foreach of the evaluation value of the amount of NOx emission, theevaluation value of electricity sales revenues, and the evaluation valueof the temperature of exhaust gas which are obtained from the estimationvalue e2.

Here, the management value specification unit 407 determines whether ornot each of the appearance probability of the evaluation value of theamount of NOx emission which is obtained from the estimation value e1,the appearance probability of the evaluation value of electricity salesrevenues which is obtained from the estimation value e1, the appearanceprobability of the evaluation value of the temperature of exhaust gaswhich is obtained from the estimation value e1, the appearanceprobability of the evaluation value of the amount of NOx emission whichis obtained from the estimation value e2, the appearance probability ofthe evaluation value of electricity sales revenues which is obtainedfrom the estimation value e2, and the appearance probability of theevaluation value of the temperature of exhaust gas which is obtainedfrom the estimation value e2 is equal to or greater than a predeterminedthreshold value. Here, as shown in FIG. 11, it is assumed that theappearance probability of the evaluation value of the amount of NOxemission which is obtained from the estimation value e1, the appearanceprobability of the evaluation value of the amount of NOx emission whichis obtained from the estimation value e2, and the appearance probabilityof the evaluation value of the temperature of exhaust gas which isobtained from the estimation value e2 are equal to or greater than athreshold value (indicated by “O” in FIG. 11), and the others are lessthan the threshold value (indicated by “X” in FIG. 11).

In addition, the management value specification unit 407 specifies anestimation value having the largest number of items for which anappearance probability is equal to or greater than the threshold valueas a management value. In the example shown in FIG. 11, since the numberof items for which an appearance probability is equal to or greater thanthe threshold value, among the evaluation items obtained from theestimation value e1, is one and the number of items for which anappearance probability is equal to or greater than the threshold value,among the evaluation items obtained from the estimation value e2, istwo, the management value specification unit 407 sets the estimationvalue e2 to be a management value.

«Operations and Effects»

In this manner, according to the fourth embodiment, the managementdevice 40 specifies a value to be used for the management of the targetdevice 10 oil the basis of a plurality of evaluation items. Thereby, themanagement device 40 can appropriately set a value of a target statequantity to be used for the management of the target device 10 so thatan evaluation item to be used for the management of the target device 10has an appropriate value.

Meanwhile, in the fourth embodiment, the management device 40 specifiesa management value on the basis of the number of items for which anappearance probability is equal to or greater than a threshold value,but is not limited thereto. For example, in other embodiments, themanagement device 40 may specify a management value on the basis of thesum of appearance probabilities and a weighted average for eachevaluation item or may specify a management value on the basis of thenumber of items having the highest appearance probability.

Fifth Embodiment

According to the first to fourth embodiments, the management device 40generates an estimation value of a state quantity on the basis of aplurality of models. In a fifth embodiment, operations in a case whereone of a plurality of models is a statistical model will be described.

«Configuration of Management Device»

FIG. 12 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of amanagement device according to the fifth embodiment.

A management device 40 according to the fifth embodiment furtherincludes a state quantity storage unit 410 and a model updating unit 411in addition to the components in the first embodiment. The modelupdating unit 411 updates a statistical model among a plurality ofmodels stored in a model storage unit 403 on the basis of values of thepast state quantities stored in the state quantity storage unit 410.

«Operations of Management Device»

FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing operations of the management deviceaccording to the fifth embodiment.

When the management device 40 starts to manage the target device 10, themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 acquires a measurement value of astate quantity by a measurement instrument 20 from a communicationdevice 30 (step S401). Next, the omission detection unit 402 detects theomission of the measurement value acquired by the measurement valueacquisition unit 401 (step S402). An estimation unit 404 applies themeasurement value acquired by the measurement value acquisition unit 401to each of a plurality of models including a statistical model to obtaineach of estimation values of state quantities (target state quantities)of which the omission has been detected (step S403).

Next, a probability specification unit 406 specifies an appearanceprobability of each estimation value on the basis of a probabilitydistribution stored in a probability distribution storage unit 405 (stepS404). In addition, a management value specification unit 407 specifiesthe highest probability among probabilities specified by the probabilityspecification unit 406 and selects an estimation value related to theprobability to specify a value of a state quantity of which the omissionhas been detected (step S405). A management unit 408 manages the targetdevice 10 on the basis of the measurement value acquired by themeasurement value acquisition unit 401 and the value specified by themanagement value specification unit 407 (step S406). The measurementvalue acquisition unit 401 and the management value specification unit407 stores values used for the management of the target device 10 in astate quantity storage unit 410 (step S407). In addition, the modelupdating unit 411 updates a statistical model stored in the modelstorage unit 403 on the basis of the values stored in the state quantitystorage unit 410 (step S408).

«Operations and Effects»

In this manner, according to the fifth embodiment, the estimation unit404 can estimate a value of a state quantity by using a statisticalmodel updated at a timing of the previous management at each managementtiming. The probability specification unit 406 specifies an appearanceprobability of an estimation value using the updated statistical model.That is, according to the fifth embodiment, it is possible to estimate astatistical estimation value with higher accuracy by updating not onlystatistical data but also a statistical model itself at each managementtiming.

Meanwhile, the management device 40 according to the fifth embodimentupdates a statistical model on the basis of values of the past statequantities, but is not limited thereto. For example, in otherembodiments, the management device 40 may not update a statistical modelwhile storing a state quantity in the state quantity storage unit 410.Also in this case, the accuracy of estimation using a statistical modelmay be improved by storing the values of the past state quantities. Forexample, an estimation value of an average value approaches a true valueaccording to the “Law of Large Numbers” by the storage of data, and therange of dispersion is narrowed down, so that an improvement inestimation accuracy can be expected.

Other Embodiments

Although an embodiment has been described above in detail with referenceto the accompanying drawing, a specific configuration is not limited tothe above-described configurations, and various design changes and thelike can be made.

For example, the management device 40 in the management system 1according to the above-described embodiment has a function of extractingand specifying a value to be used for the management of the targetdevice 10, but is not limited thereto. For example, in the managementsystems 1 according to the other embodiments, an information processingdevice extracting and specifying a value to be used for the managementof the target device 10 may be provided separately from the managementdevice 40, and the management device 40 may manage the target device 10using the value specified by the information processing device.

In addition, for example, the management device 40 according to theabove-described embodiment acquires a measurement value through thenetwork N, but is not limited thereto. For example, the managementdevices 40 according to the other embodiments may directly acquire ameasurement value from the measurement instrument 20. In this case, themanagement system 1 may not include the communication device 30.

In addition, according to the above-described embodiments, themanagement device 40 selects one of a plurality of estimation values toset the selected estimation value to be a value of a state quantity tobe used for the management of the target device 10, but is not limitedthereto. For example, in other embodiments, the management device 40 mayobtain a weighted average value of estimation values using weightcoefficients according to appearance probabilities to set the obtainedweighted average value to be a value of a state quantity to be used forthe management of the target device 10. The weight coefficient of eachestimation value is monotonously increased with respect to an appearanceprobability. The management device 40 may use, for example, anappearance probability of an estimation value as it is as a weightcoefficient.

In addition, according to the above-described embodiments, themanagement device 40 obtains a value of which the omission has beendetected through estimation, but is not limited thereto. For example, inother embodiments, the management device 40 may obtain a value of astate quantity through estimation regardless of the presence or absenceof omission and may specify a value to be used for the management of thetarget device 10 on the basis of a probability distribution for each ofa measurement value and an estimation value.

<Configuration of Computer>

FIG. 14 is a schematic block diagram showing a configuration of acomputer according to at least one embodiment.

A computer 90 includes a CPU 91, a main storage device 92, an auxiliarystorage device 93, and an interface 94.

The management device 40 mentioned above is mounted on the computer 90.In addition, operations of the above-described processing units arestored in the auxiliary storage device 93 in a format of a program. TheCPU 91 reads out a program from the auxiliary storage device 93,develops the program in the main storage device 92, and executes theabove-described processing in accordance with the program. In addition,the CPU 91 secures a storage area corresponding to the model storageunit 403 and the probability distribution storage unit 405 in the mainstorage device 92 in accordance with a program.

Examples of the auxiliary storage device 93 include a hard disk drive(HDD), a solid state drive (SSD), a magnetic disc, a magneto-opticaldisc, a compact disc read only memory (CD-ROM), a digital versatile discread only memory (DVD-ROM), a semiconductor memory, and the like. Theauxiliary storage device 93 may be an internal medium directly connectedto a bus of the computer 90 or may be an external medium connected tothe computer 90 through the interface 94 or a communication line.Further, in a case where the program is distributed to the computer 90through a communication line, the computer 90 having the programdistributed thereto may be developed in the main storage device 92 andmay execute the above-described processing. In at least one embodiment,the auxiliary storage device 93 is a non-transitory tangible storagemedium.

In addition, the program may be a program for realizing some of theabove-described functions. Further, the program may be a so-calleddifferential file (differential program) for realizing theabove-described functions by a combination with other programs stored inthe auxiliary storage device 93 in advance.

INDUSTRIAL APPLICABILITY

The information processing device according to the present invention canappropriately set a value of a state quantity to be used for managementof a target device on the basis of an estimation value of a target statequantity calculated using each model in consideration of a probabilitydistribution of values of state quantities.

REFERENCE SIGNS LIST

1 Management system

10 Target device

20 Measurement instrument

30 Communication device

40 Management device (information processing device)

401 Measurement value acquisition unit

402 Omission detection unit

403 Model storage unit

404 Estimation unit

405 Probability distribution storage unit

406 Probability specification unit

407 Management value specification unit

408 Management unit

409 Evaluation value calculation unit

410 State quantity storage unit

411 Model updating unit

The invention claimed is:
 1. An information processing devicecomprising: a computer including a CPU and a storage device storing aprogram; wherein the computer executes the program so as to function as:a measurement value acquisition unit which is configured to receivemeasurement values of state quantities measured by a plurality ofmeasurement instruments; an estimation unit which is configured toestimate each of a plurality of estimation values related to a targetstate quantity by using a plurality of models for explaining a targetdevice on the basis of the measurement values; an evaluation valuecalculation unit which is configured to calculate each of a plurality ofevaluation values which are values of evaluation items of management ofthe target device on the basis of the plurality of estimation values, aprobability specification unit which is configured to specify each of aplurality of probabilities corresponding to the plurality of evaluationvalues on the basis of a probability distribution of values of theevaluation items; a management value specification unit which isconfigured to specify a management value to be used for management ofthe target device on the basis of the plurality of estimation values andthe plurality of probabilities; a management unit which is configured tomanage the target device on the basis of the measurement values and thespecified management value; wherein the target device is a gas turbine,and the management unit manages the gas turbine by at least one actionselected from the group consisting of changing a gas turbine outputinstruction value, changing the setting of an opening of an IGV, andchanging a fuel flow rate, on the basis of the measurement values andthe management value.
 2. The information processing device according toclaim 1, further comprising: an omission detection unit which isconfigured to detect a state quantity of which the value is omissionamong state quantities to be processed as the target state quantity, onthe basis of the plurality of measurement values.
 3. The informationprocessing device according to claim 1, wherein the evaluation valuecalculation unit is configured to calculate each of a plurality ofevaluation values for the plurality of estimation values on the basis ofa plurality of values which can be taken by an unknown state quantitywhich is a state quantity having an unknown value, the probabilityspecification unit is configured to specify the plurality ofprobabilities respectively corresponding to the plurality of evaluationvalues for the plurality of estimation values on the basis of aconditional probability distribution of the values of the evaluationitems with a value of the unknown state quantity as a precondition, andthe management value specification unit is configured to specify a valueto be used for management of the target device on the basis of a sum ofprobabilities corresponding to the plurality of evaluation values forthe plurality of estimation values.
 4. The information processing deviceaccording to claim 1, wherein the evaluation value calculation unit isconfigured to calculate a plurality of evaluation values related to theevaluation items of a plurality of types on the basis of the pluralityof estimation values, and the management value specification unit isconfigured to specify a value to be used for management of the targetdevice on the basis of probabilities corresponding to the evaluationitems of a plurality of types for each of values of the plurality oftarget state quantities.
 5. The information processing device accordingto claim 1, wherein the management value specification unit isconfigured to specify the value of the target state quantity related tothe highest probability as a value to be used for management of thetarget device.
 6. The information processing device according to claim1, wherein the plurality of models include at least any one of astatistical model and a physical model.
 7. The information processingdevice according to claim 6, further comprising: a model updating unitwhich updates the statistical model on the basis of values of past statequantities, wherein the probability specification unit is configured tospecify a probability corresponding to an estimation value estimatedusing the updated statistical model.
 8. An information processing methodcomprising: receiving, by a computer, measurement values of statequantities measured by a plurality of measurement instruments;estimating, by the computer, each of a plurality of estimation valuesrelated to a target state quantity by using a plurality of models forexplaining a target device on the basis of the measurement values;calculating, by the computer, each of a plurality of evaluation valueswhich are values of evaluation items of management of the target deviceon the basis of the plurality of estimation values; specifying, by thecomputer, each of a plurality of probabilities corresponding to theplurality of evaluation values on the basis of a probabilitydistribution of values of the evaluation items; specifying, by thecomputer, a management value to be used for management of the targetdevice on the basis of the plurality of estimation values and theplurality of probabilities; managing, by the computer, the target deviceon the basis of the measurement values and the specified managementvalue; wherein the target device is a gas turbine, and managing the gasturbine by at least one action selected from the group consisting ofchanging a gas turbine output instruction value, changing the setting ofan opening of an IGV, and changing a fuel flow rate, on the basis of themeasurement values and the management value.
 9. The informationprocessing method according to claim 8, further comprising the step of:detecting a state quantity of which the value is omission among statequantities to be processed as the target state quantity, on the basis ofthe plurality of measurement values.
 10. A non-transitorycomputer-readable computer medium storing a program causing a computerto: receive measurement values of state quantities measured by aplurality of measurement instruments; estimate each of a plurality ofestimation values related to a target state quantity by using aplurality of models for explaining a target device on the basis of themeasurement values; calculate each of a plurality of evaluation valueswhich are values of evaluation items of management of the target deviceon the basis of the plurality of estimation values; specify each of aplurality of probabilities corresponding to the plurality of evaluationvalues on the basis of a probability distribution of values of theevaluation items; specify a management value to be used for managementof the target device on the basis of the plurality of estimation valuesand the plurality of probabilities; managing the target device on thebasis of the measurement values and the specified management value;wherein the target device is a gas turbine, and managing the gas turbineby at least one action selected from the group consisting of changing agas turbine output instruction value, changing the setting of an openingof an IGV, and changing a fuel flow rate, on the basis of themeasurement values and the management value.
 11. The non-transitorycomputer-readable computer medium storing a program according to claim10, further causing a computer to: detect a state quantity of which thevalue is omission among state quantities to be processed as the targetstate quantity, on the basis of the plurality of measurement values.